Democrat Bill Owens served in the United States House from 2009 to 2014, representing New York’s current 21st District. He remains a keen observer of political activity in Washington DC and Albany. He recently discussed redistricting, inflation and other issues with WAMC Northern Bureau Chief Pat Bradley. He started by evaluating the redrawn US House maps of New York.

Overall, Democrats still have 15 solidly Democratic precincts where the Democratic nominee will most likely win. I think the Republicans have three, obviously including our district. Then there is a group of rocking seats and this piece really did not surprise me. But the fact that many people have been cut off from their district by very thin lines, for example Brian Higgins in Buffalo. I mean, apparently he’s across the line. Right? It does not mean anything. You have a number of other people, Paul Tonko, even Elise Stefanik. She no longer lives in the neighborhood. Paul does not live in his neighborhood. I thought some of these things were very strange. And I read the Special Master’s decision and report and he didn’t really give a well-reasoned answer to that question.

What do you think are the ramifications for Stefanik and the upcoming elections in the new district?

I don’t think it changes his situation much. I think the old, Democrat-designed neighborhood was very favorable to him. I think this is essentially just as favorable in terms of an “R” rating. I think what has changed are the recent attacks she has absorbed. We have her mentor at Harvard quoted in the Washington Post saying she went to the dark side. You know dramatic language quite well. This man is a longtime Republican stalwart. Then you have the Lincoln project chasing her. The timing of this seems interesting.

Stefanik, from what I understand though, is using a Trumpian response to the Harvard individual by saying that I never really knew this person well and haven’t spoken to him in decades.

It’s true and everything she does now is driven by MAGA. Interestingly, someone pointed out to me, a gentleman I correspond with at DC who is a law professor, that she replaced all of her staff. Its main staff in DC is no longer local people. They are the MAGA people. I mean, she took this huge leap to the far right. Which to me is a surprise because when she took office, as the gentleman from Harvard described her, she was a real bipartisan centrist type person. And then she started to move to the right. It started during his second term. In her first term, she was in the middle. The second term shifted a bit to the right. Third term to the right. And she just jumped on the Trump bandwagon and stayed there.

Stefanik said she was proud to be what is called Ultra-MAGA. This is a phrase that has been gaining ground for a few months now. How will the Ultra-MAGA position work for her at New York 21?

Well, it’s pretty clear based on the polls and Mr. Trump’s votes in 2016 and 20 that the district has become, I would say, a stronghold, a bastion for Mr. Trump and his views. So I think it probably suits him well. Unless something else evolves, I don’t think it creates much risk. I’m not saying I think it’s the right thing to do. I’m just saying that I think in terms of political analysis, I don’t know if there’s a big risk.

A few other topics. Everyone is dealing with inflation right now. Do you have any ideas what you would do against inflation if you could do something about it?

Again, an incredibly complex question. Let’s do some history. We have two or three things that I think people don’t focus on. First, housing prices have risen dramatically. But no one points to this as a cause of inflation. But it may be the biggest contributor because the numbers are so dramatic. You have supply chain issues, that’s true. You walk into almost any store and there are blanks on the shelves. And that’s driving the inflation rate. The cost of transporting goods is also on the rise. These are things that happen, if you will, under the radar, or people don’t focus on them. So I think until the supply chain works again, you can’t bring inflation down. The other factor that I find very interesting is that salaries have increased dramatically. In many cases, the most in 10 to 15 years, right? It is also inflationary. So there are a lot of factors that are not really controllable by the government. They just aren’t. It is therefore a complex piece. And, you know, unfortunately, this is happening during President Biden’s tenure and it’s going to be marked.

How much can the Biden administration actually cope with all these inflationary pressures when they are in fact global?

This is a very good observation and I think they have very little to do, again, until the supply chain recovers. And now you have the situation in China where they are starting to see rising unemployment. They are beginning to see stagnation in their economy. And if they stopped producing, it would make inflation even worse.

If things stay the same, will President Biden be the best option in 2024?

Well, one of the interesting things if you listen to people across the aisle, including our congressman, I haven’t heard a proposal to fight inflation. There are a lot of slurs and a lot of statements that are not backed up by any facts. But there is no reasoned answer that says if you did these three things you would get a reduction in inflation. I think they recognize that there is no cure at this point. And I didn’t offer any solution either. I just commented on what I see as the problem. And it’s just that it’s just going to take time. I think we’re probably a year away from fixing the supply chain issues.

What does this mean for the midterm elections?

It’s not good. It’s not a good scenario. So I think for Democrats, they have to, they have to look to the pocketbook issues and you know how to come up with solutions. Things like restoring child credit. This has been very helpful for low income families. It is also an inflationary factor. Right. I think what Powell is doing to reduce the Fed’s bond buying will also help because you’re reducing the money supply. And that should also contribute somewhat to the money supply being more closely linked to productivity. And that’s one area where you might be able to get some reduction in inflation. But these are all things that are really beyond the control of the government. And you have to have people willing to do those things and it’s not clear to me that people are willing to do that. But mostly, I didn’t hear any plans from anyone.

Have you ever sat down and regretted leaving the Chamber, not being there to give your thoughts and views?

If I thought people would listen, I would have regrets. But one of the factors is that if you’re a moderate, the number of moderates has dropped. There are maybe 20 people who fit into this category now. When I got there, there were 150. That would make your voice a very lonely voice. And I’m pretty sure that even though people talk about wanting to have moderates, that’s not really what they want. They want someone who’s going to, you know, radically embrace their positions. And I don’t think in many cases it gives you a good result.

Our conversation with former Democratic Congressman Bill Owens was recorded before the Texas school shooting.

Owens is a regular commentator for WAMC. He is a partner at the law firm Stafford, Owens, Piller, Murnane, Kelleher and Trombley in Plattsburgh, N.Y. and strategic advisor at Dentons in Washington, D.C.